By David Murrin | 28 February 2013
David Murrin is the author of Breaking the Code of History, the culmination of decades of personal research across a wide range of disciplines. David compellingly argues that human behaviour is not random, but determined by specific, quantifiable and predictable patterns fuelled by our need to survive and prosper. He has called this cycle The Five Stages of Empire, which due to its fractal nature is applicable to empires, all the way down to the cycle of the individual. According to David, to resolve the issues confronting us today we cannot merely study the past. The human race will need to understand this precise algorithm of behaviour that has caused us to re-enact the same destructive cycles in ever-greater magnitudes, in order to change our future.
The deadlock and failure of western governments to lead their countries effectively is a symptom of where these nations are within their empire cycle. In this sequence of blogs I will seek to put into perspective the current predicament within western societies and their failure to produce effective leadership that could otherwise create more positive outcomes for the West.
Part 1 “The empire cycle and leadership”
The rise of an empire is driven by the creative/maverick individuals within a society who take risk and build productive enterprises that feed back wealth into the growing empire. It is these strong visionaries and, at times difficult, personalities that are represented in governments in the expansive stage of an empire. As an empire matures so the structures of governance increasingly eject these mavericks from the governmental process and replace them with what are perceived as safe pairs of hands that lead the country conservatively, but without creative adaptation.
By the time an empire enters into decline there are two negative forces at work within the process of government. The first is that it will cease to contain or exhibit any of the components of maverick leadership that are so necessary for the creation of the solutions needed to renovate and rebuild the empire. The second is that the demographics of an empire in decline shift so that the system becomes polarised and split into two roughly equal halves representing the old ‘overclass’ and the rising ‘underclass’, who, with opposing polices, enter into a period of deadlock and subsequent self-destruction. Once an empire has collapsed the nation then enters a period of extended malaise in which great leadership will be a quality sorely in demand, until expansive demographics cause a regionalisation process to gain new momentum and evolve into a civil war which will in turn generate radical new leadership that drives the nation into a new cycle of growth.
Part 2 “So where are Britain and Italy on the Empire leadership cycle”
Old Europe lost its empire after 1950, and the EU is, in effect, a futile attempt to force the regionalisation process without the benefit of powerful demographics being in place to drive this. And so both Italy and Britain fall into a phase where poor leadership is the norm, until frustration and collective suffering drive a new energy that changes the nature of government fundamentally. In Britain’s case Mrs Thatcher was an exception to this rule, creating a minor bubble of expansion that, once it had peaked, has taken less dynamic leaders some 20 years of incompetence to destroy.
Both countries are affected by a political system that creates leaders and parties who are really not that dissimilar in policies and whose values lack the qualities of true visionary leadership. The result for the electorate is an unappetising choice between one shade of grey and another with the result that deadlock between parties in elections is commonplace, and coalition governments created are even less likely to arrest the headlong dive into economic contraction.
Part 3 “US Sequestration is a sad reality”
The US is the last nation in the system of the Western Christian Empire, and whilst it survives it also helps to keep afloat the European system long after it would have collapsed of its own volition. But its own dynamics are those of a nation that is clearly well into a phase of decline itself. The deadlock between the rising ‘underclass’ in the form of the Democrats and the Republicans who generally represent the old ‘overclass’ is clear for all to see with the recent failed Budget discussions.
The fact that all parties are resigned towards the sequestration process at the start of March because they are unable to solve their differences, is a clear demonstration that America has entered a very self destructive phase of its cycle. Whilst each party expends valuable energy passing the blame of the failure of these talks on to the other party, the only real winner will be the Chinese, who will interpret this moment in time as another milestone in the continuing decline of the US Empire. The Sequesters arbitrary application will impact America’s ability to project power, creating vacuums that will quickly be filled by China and its challenging allies.
In short, this is not a good moment for America or the West generally.
Part 4 “The unpopularity of Western politicians can only increase”
In general we can be sure that, whilst in 2008 Western politicians ensured that the bankers who they had encouraged to leverage the failing growth of the West so that they could remain in power, took the blame for the financial crisis. Going forward they will not be able to avoid the blame for the ensuing economic distress, and will become increasingly vilified by the populations that they lead and, in due course, history itself. As is currently being played out in Greece, this will inevitably result in greater civil disobedience across western societies with all the self-destructive mechanisms traditionally associated with economic contraction.
We can only hope that our democratic processes will enable new political parties like UKIP to achieve greater prominence and influence, and so challenge the older parties to deploy more effective polices that will lead to positive outcomes sooner rather than later for western societies.
Reprinted with permission from the author.
David Murrin, a former oil company geologist, has spent the past 25 years in the world of financial markets. He is CEO of London-based Emergent Asset Management, a company he co-founded in 1997. Emergent’s investments are driven by David’s views as outlined in his book Breaking the Code of History, which focuses on his theory of historical cycles. He speaks widely on the topics of his book, appearing regularly as a keynote speaker on television and company boards. We would encourage people to join his site at www.davidmurrin.co.uk/blog as there are many articles which are outside our remit.
UKIP Official Channel – David Murrin
David Murrin – ‘Breaking the code of history’ Part 1
David Murrin – ‘Breaking the code of history’ Part 2
David Murrin – ‘Breaking the code of history’ Part 3
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