By Joan McCarter | 29 June 2018
While conservative rags have opinion pages blaring headlines like “Overturn Roe v. Wade,” two-thirds of American voters—67 percent—say it needs to be preserved. And that’s from a poll taken before Justice Anthony Kennedy, the key swing vote on abortion on a closely divided Supreme Court, retired.
Public opinion on abortion is nuanced and a lot of factors go into individual votes. That said….this is the starting point if Roe goes down. Look at the numbers for women 18-44. https://t.co/H4FeHhGDcB pic.twitter.com/DeSeGnlhhy
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) June 29, 2018
Again, these results are from the Kaiser Family Foundation’s health tracking poll taken before Kennedy retired, before we learned that Donald Trump would have the opportunity to steal another Supreme Court seat. Trump has not only pledged to overturn Roe, he’s endorsed criminalizing abortion and punishing women. That’s what Trump wants to happen with this seat.
So the 42 percent of voters who “say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports access to abortion services” is likely to increase significantly now that the threat is so very real and so very imminent.
The strongest support for the law comes from the group of women who are directly affected by having abortion rights, women of reproductive age. Three-quarters—74 percent—of women ages 18-44 want Roe to stay. That’s not to diminish the strong support for Roe coming from all women (68 percent) and from men (65 percent), but that’s a lot of women.
A lot of women who are already so fired up about this election that not only are a record number of women running for office, but they are winning primary elections in record numbers. It’s Democratic women who are running and winning and mobilizing.
If Republicans think they’ll win this midterm election by running on the Supreme Court and overturning Roe to juice turnout in their base, they are miscalculating. If vulnerable Democratic senators think compromising on a Supreme Court justice who would vote to get rid of abortion will keep them safe, they’re really miscalculating.
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