Putin’s War Would Backfire On Him. Is War Here Obsolete?

By Donald A. Collins | 21 January 2022
Church and State

(Credit: YouTube / screengrab)

Thomas Friedman on Anderson Cooper’s 1/20 CNN TV program made what to me was the best case for Putin not going into Ukraine.

His main point was that when his troops start getting shipped home in body bags, his sagging popularity at home will get worse.

Will he risk that? Friedman’s view? Seemed be no.

His background column on Putin entitled “Marry Me or I will Kill You” can be read here.

This critical passage from Friedman’s perceptive piece:

If I were a cynic, I’d just tell him to go ahead and take Kyiv because it would become his Kabul, his Afghanistan — but the human costs would be intolerable. Short of that, I’d be very clear: If he wants to come down from the tree in which he’s lodged himself, he’s going to have to jump or build his own ladder. He has completely contrived this crisis, so there should be no give on our part. China is watching — and Taiwan is sweating — everything we do in reaction to Vlad right now.

The complexity of the decision makes it worthy of reading this column.

Meantime per page one WSJ 1/21/22 article, US transfer of more weapons to Ukraine will make invasion more costly.

Headline: “Biden Aims to Reassure Kyle, U.S. back’s weapons Transfer”

Objective? Putin takes Ukraine. Then what? Sanctions won’t remove him, but he may have, as Friedman predicts, bought into a new Afghanistan swamp as the 43 million Ukrainians will make his incursion very costly, again proving my thesis that war is obsolete in terms of gaining its objective of net gain.

Hope it doesn’t happen.

Former US Navy officer, banker and venture capitalist, Donald A. Collins, a free lance writer living in Washington, DC, has spent over 50 years working for women’s reproductive health as a board member and/or officer of numerous family planning organizations including Planned Parenthood Federation of America, Guttmacher Institute, Family Health International and Ipas. Yale under graduate, NYU MBA. He is the author of “From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013”, “Trump Becoming Macbeth: Will our democracy survive?”, “We Humans Overwhelm Our Earth: 11 or 2 Billion by 2100?” and “What Can Be Done Now to Save Habitable Life on Planet Earth?: Leaders Commit to Reduce Human Population”.

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