As dismissive as one might be to the power of the UN to go beyond its useful at times debates, the war in Ukraine is being pursued with continuing civilian and military disasters and shows far too little signs of ending through negotiations.
However, the March 20th page one headline in the Washington Post is “‘Time to talk’ Zelensky says, as horrors pile up”.
Despite his bravery and that of his citizens, Zelensky apparently sees no course but negotiations with Putin whose “off ramp” is likely winning some Ukrainian territory.
That this monster will survive after his war crimes makes any deal seem hollow. Putin’s nukes will have saved him from the punishment he so richly has earned.
It could also put off World War 3, a valid threat if his nukes were used.
According to many experts, Putin still has most of his citizens believing his propaganda and while sanctions are painful his inept but lethal Ukraine atrocities keep going because of the West’s correct fear or escalation.
Putin’s recently rally staged in Moscow was huge. Read here.
Putin appears at big rally as troops press attack in Ukraine https://t.co/WsiBJVdgU6
— ABC6 News Desk (@ABC6) March 19, 2022
That his speech got cut off is unexplained. Read here.
Putin’s speech at staged patriotic rally is abruptly cut off. The Kremlin claims it was a glitch.https://t.co/vyOtqWPEj9
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) March 18, 2022
I now must amend my contention that conventional wars of conquest are obsolete. Obviously NOT if backed by a nuclear threat.
However, incursions on NATO nations’ territories by Putin would allow NATO in those NATO countries to use whatever conventional military arms needed to win.
Credible reports confirm that Putin’s oligarchs can hide and access their wealth in the West.
— Beth Reinhard (@bethreinhard) March 2, 2022
In short, Putin is clearly not out of resources to continue his brutality.
My World War 3 question remains, surely alarming to every sane leader in the world!
Back to the question of Putin’s off ramp. How much compromise?
Will he be unsatisfied by any settlement offer now will he use gas or threaten tactical nukes?
If Zelensky gives in to an easy settlement, does a Ukraine negotiation ending this war signal Putin’s victory as well as allowing him future military forays into NATO Allies’ territories?
Reuters says: Ukraine’s Zelensky tells Russia to hold peace talks or suffer for generations: President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Saturday for comprehensive peace talks with Moscow to stop its invasion of Ukraine, saying it would otherwise take Russia “several generations” to recover from its losses in the war.
Russia appears to be a despot, a desperate hag of a nation, trying to subjugate free Ukrainian Slavs into modern slaves molded in some totalitarian adventurism of chosen dystopia, a myopic play that will curse the Russian people for generations out of ego. https://t.co/UCtHMVQ8qo
— brian fischer (@SacCIO) March 19, 2022
If Putin does use gas, what can be our response except escalation? No one on the Sunday 3/20/22 talk shows such as Meet the Press could dismiss this possibility or offer a response except continued sanctions.
Putin may believe has his template for future incursions—perhaps into nearby NATO Allies.
One key question: will China acknowledge this very real possibility of nuclear escalation into WW 3? I suggested a change of Chinese posture toward Russia in my March 22nd piece, “Will China’s Premier Xi Grow Cautious As Putin’s Isolation By All Other Major Powers Tightens?” Read again here.
A major gain could come from Xi in simply his saying stop to Putin or not offering some kind of aid. They are allegedly friends, but WW3 presents the ultimate challenge. And a madman like Putin brings an unacceptable risk to mankind and to Xi’s reputation for China.
My conclusion on a final Ukraine resolution as I have stated before, is that there will be no satisfactory ending, given already what has occurred there.
Obviously the most desired solution would be to somehow finish off Putin, as he likely will be continuing to bully his way into the resuscitation of the Stalin empire.
How to deal with Putin assuming a deal is struck on Ukraine?
Hopefully sanctions will remain and be allowed to give the West a credible World War 3 off-ramp honorable enough to propitiate Western war hawk’s here and in NATO.
Putin did this with impunity. Sanctions are not enough to protect innocent Ukrainians. 90% of Mariupol damaged, including theater where hundreds sheltered, official says: Live Ukraine updates https://t.co/zyqWHjfAv7 via @USATODAY
— Barbara Malmet (@B52Malmet) March 17, 2022
As we all know there can be no perfect non-nuclear ban as we have known for many years, despite dictators such as North Korea’s Kim constantly flexing their muscles.
Complex? Certainly. But nuclear escalation by Putin or anyone else is confronting world suicide which should give even Putin pause about pursuing use of nukes. Maybe not gas.
Is a deserved punishment lost if Putin gets any by peace deal involving his keeping this annexation of any part of Ukraine? Well, some give might be necessary. While Dante’s hell is fiction, Putin’s future doesn’t seem bright, especially if we can remain patient and keep the sanctions hurting.
Certainly, the UN has a useful voice which will be heard.
World War 3 by a negotiated deal between Zelensky and Putin will be delayed but never in the world’s future to be taken off the table.
What if no deal now? Who really can say? Certainly, much more bloodshed by Ukrainians and the stumbling Russian army. That inept but still deadly force now seems to have temporarily given up on taking the capitol, Kyiv, and concentrated on securing the south where those who favored Russia are located.
What lurks more menacingly soon are Earth’s urgent problems with climate and environment which are far from solved and pressing upon mankind more than ever in human history.
Why? Because we continually ignore our main underling driver of these problems, excess human numbers.
Every effort now must be focused on the means to give the world’s women equal rights. The major first step is best exemplified by ensuring their ability to control their fertility.
The human and financial cost of so doing is so minimal (and morally defensible) when compared to war that surely, we can embrace such an effort or we are finished as a species.
"What Can Be Done Now to Save Habitable Life on Planet Earth?": https://t.co/fHuh0CG6JD
"We Humans Overwhelm Our Earth: 11 or 2 Billion by 2100?": https://t.co/TA4j7cp1tE
"From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013": https://t.co/lkC2t3E1A9 pic.twitter.com/bQsL2mLBcO
— Church and State (@ChurchAndStateN) November 1, 2021
Putin continues to advocate for war at pro-war rally in Moscow
Biden doubles down on calling Putin a ‘war criminal’
UN Climate Change Will Soon Overwhelm Nature & Humanity If Nothing Changes
Sir David Attenborough on overpopulation