Christians in the US could be a minority group by 2070, study finds

30 September 2022

(Image by Thomas from Pixabay)

The US remains home to more Christians than any other country in the world but by 2070 Christians numbers could fall to as low as 35%, while the religiously unaffiliated figure could rise to 52%. The Guardian reports:

Christians in the US may become a minority group by 2070 if recent trends continue, according to data released by the Pew Research Center.

The steady switching scenario predicts that Christians will lose their majority but will still be the biggest US religious group in 2070.

“If switching among young Americans continued at recent rates, Christians would decline as a share of the population by a few percentage points per decade”, the center said.

“In 2070, 46% of Americans would identify as Christian, making Christianity a plurality – the most common religious identity – but no longer a majority … the share of ‘nones’ [individuals who are not religiously affiliated] would not climb above 41%”.

Last, for the scenario of rising disaffiliation without limits, Christians would no longer be a majority by 2045, assuming that switching rates before the age of 30 were to accelerate. As a result, by 2055, the unaffiliated would become the country’s largest group at 46%, ahead of Christians at 43%.

Depending on whether religious switching stops entirely, accelerates or continues at current rates, projections reveal that Christians of all ages will shrink from representing 64% of Americans to between 35% and 54% by 2070. Meanwhile, “nones” will rise from 30% to somewhere between 34% and 52% of the population.

Overall rates of religious switching are likely to have the biggest impact on the future landscape compared with other factors like fertility rates or how many parents pass their religion to children.

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