Does Hunter’s Conviction Help His Dad’s Election?

By Donald A. Collins | 12 June 2024
Church and State

(Credit: YouTube / screengrab)

Despite the disparity between the seriousness of the crimes in both convictions of Hunter Biden and Donald Trump, the former isn’t the GOP candidate for President!

President Biden’s immediate statement about the conviction repeated he and his wife’s continuing support as before lauding Hunter’s recovery. He repeated his earlier confirmation of respecting the verdict and earlier said he would not pardon Hunter.

Immediately after Hunter’s conviction, Trump’s campaign attacked the decision as still it failing to continue to find President Biden guilty of crimes.

As the June 11th story from Reuters reports,

The trial followed the May 30 criminal conviction of Donald Trump, the first U.S. president to be found guilty of a felony.

Trump, convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal, has claimed without evidence that the multiple criminal prosecutions he faces have been orchestrated by Joe Biden in a bid to block his reelection.

On Tuesday, Trump’s campaign showed no signs of changing its tack.

“This trial has been nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family,” Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

Doubtless many GOP comments will be coming.

Read the full article here.

Months of efforts by Representative James Comer, Chair of the US House Oversight Committee, has failed to produce evidence against Biden. Comer now expands his libelous attacks by using the pejorative term without evidence the “Biden Crime Family”. It has become a source of embarrassment for Comer, but to stop would be an admission that it was all along a witch hunt for political gain.

The articles I quote below were written shortly after Trump’s conviction, but my contention is that Hunter’s conviction will produce powerful imagery contrasting the vast gap of integrity between Biden and Trump that will continue to be a factor as Hunter’s cases continue to be pursued as the campaign gets into full swing.

Trump’s behavior during his NYC hush money trial and after a CNN poll just after his 5/30 conviction showed 50 percent of Americans deemed the verdict correctly decided. However, talking to many groups, many dismissed his conviction as the John King May 31 article which got this kind of responses:

Pierce, Konchek, Sarcone and Katsanos are all participating in a CNN project to follow the 2024 election through the eyes and experiences of voters who live in key battlegrounds or are part of key voting blocs. We will check back as news of the historic 34 count conviction sinks in, and as the former president prepares to be sentenced in July – days before he is to be officially nominated for president at the Republican National Convention.

But our conversations before and during the trial were eye opening: the overwhelming majority of the Trump supporters in our voter groups viewed the cases against the former president — especially the Manhattan one — as politically motivated. (The former president pleaded not guilty in this and three other looming criminal cases.) Even many Republicans who are not Trump fans share the view that he is being unfairly targeted. Biden supporters, on the other hand, saw the verdicts as Trump finally being held accountable for what they see as a lifetime of cheating and lying.

Read John King’s article in full here.

An ABC poll conducted on just after the verdict on June 1st showed 49 percent thought the verdict was fair and further said that Trump should withdraw from the campaign. Again most voters are not yet fully engaged on the election at this point. Here are some quotes from this article:

A plurality of Americans, 50%, think former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict on all 34 counts in his hush money trial was correct, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds, and almost as many, 49%, think he should end his 2024 presidential campaign over the result.

Still, following the historic criminal trial that ended this week in a first-ever conviction of a former president, Trump’s favorability has remained stable at 31%, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ Knowledge Panel. Trump was found guilty of 34 counts on Thursday in his trial related to falsifying business records regarding a payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election in order to keep her quiet about their alleged affair.

The former president has vowed to appeal, saying on Friday that “bad people” had levied the case – and charges – against him.

Forty-seven percent of Americans said they think the charges against Trump in this case were politically motivated, while 38% say they were not. At the same time, the slight majority at 51%, think Trump intentionally did something illegal in this case. Twelve percent think Trump did something wrong but not intentionally, and 19% believe he did not do anything wrong.

The proportion of Americans who say Trump should end his presidential campaign as a result of this verdict is 49%, which is similar to findings from an April 2023 ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after the Manhattan grand jury handed down the indictment against him in this case. In the April 2023 polls, 48% thought he should suspend his campaign because of the indictment.

Biden’s favorability rating also remains low and unchanged, according to the new ABC News/Ipsos poll. His favorability rating currently stands at 32% compared to 33% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in March 2024. Public reaction to Trump’s guilty verdict falls along partisan lines. For example, 83% of Democrats think the verdict was correct and 79% think he should end his campaign as a result, while only 16% of Republicans say the verdict was correct and the same percentage say he should end his presidential bid.

Read ABC’s June 2nd article here.

A Reuters poll said one in ten GOP voters might be affected by his conviction. Admittedly subsequent claims were less optimistic as with the above references, but words such as these are out there.

The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate’s conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said they were more likely to support Trump, who has claimed the charges against him are politically motivated and has vowed to appeal.

The potential loss of a tenth of his party’s voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction.

Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.

The verdict could shake up the race between Trump, who was U.S. president from 2017-2021, and Democratic President Joe Biden ahead of the Nov. 5 election. U.S. presidential elections are typically decided by thin margins in a handful of competitive swing states, meaning that even small numbers of voters defecting from their candidates can have a big impact.

Read in full here.

Opinion on the effect on Trump being a felon was of course divided along party lines, but many voters haven’t been focusing on the Fall election yet. To say as some polls do, that people have largely decided on their votes seems wrong to me.

As noted above, how fast the Delaware judge renders Hunter’s sentence and how long his California tax case takes could keep Hunter in the news well into the Fall and again be a factor in its contrasting the behavior of Biden and Trump. Addiction is bi-partisan and the pain so publically focused on the Biden family has already produced sympathy and understanding of the devastating effect it can have on people of all Americans.

Do Americans really want to undermine voter trust in our democracy or would rather have a dictator tell us what our rights are on choice, voting, gun control, climate, religion or many other issues?

Bottom line: These two verdicts should give a perfect lesson to voters of the vital importance of having our laws treat all of us equally.

The fact that in two highly publicized court cases juries made the jury system more and more credible. And again, exposes the sharp contrast between Biden’s and Trump’s reactions to our revered justice system!

Biden’s son, now a recovering addict, as addicts are always aware that they are recovering and could fall into the abyss, will elicit large sympathy from most Americans, while the other convicted felon remains addicted to retribution and intimidation against any alleged enemies!

Final Comparison: Hunter was convicted in his home state by a jury of his peers and immediately acknowledged the result as valid. Trump?

Former US Navy officer, banker and venture capitalist, Donald A. Collins, a free lance writer living in Washington, DC, has spent over 50 years working for women’s reproductive health as a board member and/or officer of numerous family planning organizations including Planned Parenthood Federation of America, Guttmacher Institute, Family Health International and Ipas. Yale under graduate, NYU MBA. He is the author of “From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013”, “Trump Becoming Macbeth: Will our democracy survive?”, “We Humans Overwhelm Our Earth: 11 or 2 Billion by 2100?”, “What Can Be Done Now to Save Habitable Life on Planet Earth?”, “Vote”, “Can Homo Sapiens Survive?”, “Will Choice and Democracy Win?”, “Can Our U.S. Survive 8 Plus Billion of Us”, “Economic Growth: A Cancer on all Earthly Life”, “On the Precipice of Political Disaster in 2024” and “Democracy at Red State Risk”.

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