Trump’s Defeat Is Surprisingly Sure!

By Donald A. Collins | 17 October 2024
Church and State

(Credit: YouTube / screengrab)

For some time in several of my articles I have predicted that our nation’s women will carry Kamala Harris & Tim Walz to victory by a substantial winning margin!

Why? Because of women’s intense wish to have abortion choice and all reproductive options including IVF!! Choice is analogous to the definition of all personal freedoms.

Before presenting my arguments here bear in mind the huge criminal charges Trump faces if he doesn’t win. He is fighting to stay out of jail or at the very least suffer a protracted Winter of legal battles that will surely cut into his time to play golf or bask in the adoration of his MAGA idiots at Mar-a-Lago or anywhere!

Of course, the main legal charge is Trump’s treasonous January 6, 2021, attempted coup to stop Biden from assuming the Presidency after Trump lost the 2020 election and then claimed fraud.

In an October 16th NBC News article entitled “Donald Trump bears responsibility for Jan. 6 attack”, Special Counsel Jack Smith argued

in a new filing in on Wednesday that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump bears responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

In a filing responding to Trump’s attempt to dismiss the case, Smith’s team said it “is incorrect” for Trump’s team to assert that the superseding indictment returned against Trump in August does not show that Trump bears responsibility for the events of Jan. 6.

Trump, Smith’s team said, “willfully caused others” to obstruct the certification of President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory by repeating his false claims of election fraud and giving “false hope” to his supporters who believed that former Vice President Mike Pence might overturn the election, and by “pressuring” Pence and legislators to accept fraudulent certificates as part of the fake electors scheme.

“Those allegations link the defendant’s actions on January 6 directly to his efforts to corruptly obstruct the certification proceeding,” Smith’s team wrote.

Special Counsel Jack Smith delivers remarks on a recently unsealed indictment against former President Donald Trump at the Justice Department, in Washington, DC, on June 9, 2023.

“Contrary to the defendant’s claim… that he bears no factual or legal responsibility for the ‘events on January 6,’ the superseding indictment plainly alleges that the defendant willfully caused his supporters to obstruct and attempt to obstruct the proceeding by summoning them to Washington, D.C., and then directing them to march to the Capitol to pressure the Vice President and legislators to reject the legitimate certificates and instead rely on the fraudulent electoral certificates,” Smith’s team wrote.

It has been apparent for some time that the real issue for Trump in winning is to be able to pardon himself and begin to dismantle our federal government with replacements totally loyal to him.

You can read the entire NBC article here.

The fear of Republicans about abortion reactions from the vast majority of women voters is reflected in the change of position of former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan as described in a Maryland Matters article entitled Hogan doubles down on abortion stance; Dems say his track record shows otherwise by Danielle J. Brown on May 22, 2024. She wrote

Republican Senate nominee Larry Hogan doubled down Wednesday on his pledge to be a “pro-choice” senator, promising to support legislation codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade that guaranteed a right to an abortion up to 26 weeks.

But his Democratic opponent, Angela Alsobrooks, shot back Wednesday, arguing that Hogan’s time as Maryland’s governor proves that voters “can’t trust” his newfound position on abortion.

Political analysts say it was necessary Hogan for come out in support of some abortion protections if he hopes to win a Senate seat this fall, as abortion continues to be one of the issues driving voters to the polls since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.

“Especially in a place like Maryland, the fact that Hogan chose it to be the topic of his first general election ad is a clear sign that this is an issue he wants to get ahead of,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, said Wednesday. He added that Hogan “clearly sees abortion as his No. 1 vulnerability in this race.”

Hogan, who described himself as personally pro-life, has previously avoided definitive statements on what abortion access should look like in Maryland and nationally. The former governor, who served from 2015 to 2023, said then that considered abortion protections to be “settled law” in Maryland.”

Elsewhere many other Republicans have tried to mask their true intentions’ as Brett Kavanaugh’s misleading Maine Senator Susan Collins in his Supreme Court nomination hearings to believing would not destroy Roe, despite his obvious intention to do so.” End quote

Another quote from this article: “An April poll from Goucher College, in partnership with the Baltimore Banner, said 60% of Maryland voters said a candidate’s position on abortion would be a “major” factor in determining their vote. Among Democrats surveyed, 70% said abortion would be a major factor in the primary, compared to 47% of Republicans and independent voters.

“Regardless of what he (Hogan) may believe in his heart, and that’s beyond my pay grade,” Rubaskin said, “I think that politically, to win statewide in Maryland in a Senate race, this is where you have to be.”

Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, agreed.

“This is something I think Hogan had to do, and the campaign realized they had to do it. And it gains them more votes than it probably costs them,” he said.

“If Larry Hogan came out and basically said that he would not support codifying Roe, that he wanted it to be decided solely by the states, that he wouldn’t protect that right … it would be the death knell of his campaign,” Eberly said.

You can read this full piece here.

Another related issue is in vitro fertilization (IVF) which this National Center for Biotechnology Information report tells us is growing in popularity.

In Oldham General Hospital, Oldham, UK, at 11:47 pm on July 25, 1978, the world of fertility medicine changed forever with the birth of 5 lb 12 oz Louise Joy Brown, the first baby to be born after successful in vitro fertilization (IVF). Since that Tuesday night 45 years ago, the International Committee for Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technologies estimates that at least 12 million babies have been born as a result of IVF and other assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs).

Most of the available data point to year-on-year increases in the number of IVF cycles. In the UK, the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) reported that 55,000 women had around 76,000 fresh and frozen embryo transfer IVF cycles in 2021, an increase of 2000 individuals since 2019. In Australia, there was a 6.2% increase in the number of IVF cycles initiated from 2018 to 2019, and in Japan, 498,140 IVF cycles, the highest number on record, were reported in 2021, up from a steady average of around 450,000 cycles yearly since 2016.

Learn more by reading here.

The Catholic Church has long been against IVF as you can read in this attached article.

The IVF issue came forth recently in full force when in a 3/22/24 article from NPR entitled Despite church prohibitions, Catholics still choose IVF to have children reported

the Alabama Supreme Court afforded frozen embryos the same legal protections as children. While many religious groups in the U.S. have no specific prohibition to the procedure, the Catholic Church clearly opposes it. But many Catholic couples turn to IVF despite their church’s teaching.

The Catholic Church has two main objections to IVF.

“Procreation is intrinsic to the physical union of the couple,” says Roberto Dell’Oro, professor of theological studies at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles and director of the school’s Bioethics Institute. He says the first objection to IVF is that it manipulates what should be a natural process. Alabama justice’s ties with far-right Christian movement raise concern

“In this case manipulation of human life for the sake of the desire of a child,” he says, “but one in which the end does not justify the means.”

Because IVF usually creates more embryos than the couple needs or wants, Dell’Oro says the church’s chief moral objection is what becomes of those “extra” embryos. Often, they are kept frozen for years, but then discarded when a couple decides to not have more children. Other times, those additional embryos are donated to scientific research.

“Though embryos should not be looked at as children,” says Dell’Oro, “they should, however, be seen as having the promise of life that develops into a child.”

The couple speaks tenderly of the entire process, from meeting with the fertility specialists to the actual appointment at which doctors implanted two embryos.

“The nurses and doctors were extremely caring and loving,” Dan says.

“They turned down the lights,” Heidi says. “It was sort of romantic. There was wine.”

“They had us choose the music we wanted playing,” Dan says. The couple picked Enya’s song “Only Time.”

Read the Catholic case and the trauma some Catholics have in proceeding against the RC’s prohibitions.

So bottom line, IVF for most Catholics is not abortion, but then abortions for them is the same as for all women.

As a 1/24/18 article in American Magazine—that’s before the June 2022 Supreme Court killing of Roe—said “Catholics are just as likely to get an abortion as other U.S. women. Why?”

Read here:

The Guttmacher Institute, formerly Planned Parenthood’s research arm, regularly surveys women on their decision to undergo an abortion. I looked at data from a 2002 national survey of 10,683 abortion-procuring women between the ages of 15 and 44. (More recent detailed data is not publicly available, but the broad demographic trends reported by Guttmacher, including the percentage of women getting abortions who are Catholic, have remained relatively stable, suggesting that the data on subgroups still have validity.) In this data set, 27 percent were Catholic, and of those, nearly 23 percent were married. In other words, one out of every 16 women procuring an abortion is married and Catholic.

This data suggests that the face of a Catholic woman choosing abortion is often not a scared college student or a single woman trying to reach career aspirations but instead a stretched-thin married mother with children at home. Her challenges require us to recognize that pro-life outreach should not just focus on college campuses or inner-city clinics but on middle-class suburban parishes as well.

The face of a Catholic woman choosing abortion is often not a scared college student but instead a stretched-thin married mother with children at home.

Compared with other women procuring abortions, Catholic women in the Guttmacher survey tended to be older; that is, Catholic women over 30 were overrepresented in women choosing abortion. Compared with other religious groups, they were more likely to be married, and thus had higher household incomes, and were more likely to be at home rather than in the workforce. Unsurprisingly, given the demographics of Catholicism in the United States, there were proportionately more Hispanics and fewer blacks than in the U.S. population.

Read the whole piece here.

So there will be an will an intensity of the campaigning hard to assess until after the November 5 election. As before the results will not be really known until weeks after as with the 2020 election.

Based on my belief that the right to a safe, convenient and inexpensive abortion so profoundly ingrained in the substantial of women (and most men) that it relates to freedom of the most powerful kind, namely to the privacy of their own bodies.

We hear from Trump and his burgeoning authoritarians about freedom. The irony is nauseating.

The Supreme Court ideologues in contravention of a key Constitutional principle of separation of church and state has been clear to many voters already.

Some polls report the abortion issue has relatively small power to motivate men’s voting. However, I believe the polls underestimate the number of women whose vote will be determined by the loss of Roe!

Even as food or other prices worry voters, the taking of abortion rights which could lead to restrictions on other reproductive options in a 2nd Trump term will be primary on women’s minds for themselves and their children as they cast their votes.

So, I repeat. Trump’s Defeat Is Surprisingly Sure!

Former US Navy officer, banker and venture capitalist, Donald A. Collins, a free lance writer living in Washington, DC, has spent over 50 years working for women’s reproductive health as a board member and/or officer of numerous family planning organizations including Planned Parenthood Federation of America, Guttmacher Institute, Family Health International and Ipas. Yale under graduate, NYU MBA. He is the author of “From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013”, “Trump Becoming Macbeth: Will our democracy survive?”, “We Humans Overwhelm Our Earth: 11 or 2 Billion by 2100?”, “What Can Be Done Now to Save Habitable Life on Planet Earth?”, “Vote”, “Can Homo Sapiens Survive?”, “Will Choice and Democracy Win?”, “Can Our U.S. Survive 8 Plus Billion of Us”, “Economic Growth: A Cancer on all Earthly Life”, “On the Precipice of Political Disaster in 2024”, “Democracy at Red State Risk”, “Does Trump Go to Jail or to The Oval Office?” and “Trump: Pardon or Punish?: The Nixon Precedence Was Not A Trump Coup Denied!”.

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