Trump’s Vast Incumbency Advantages For Reelection In November

By Donald A. Collins | 1 June 2020
Church and State

(Photo by Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0)

For those of you who read my May 28th column referencing the advantages described by Victor Davis Hanson, which could give Mr. Trump the 2nd term he seeks, I wanted to mention, which Hanson did not other specific advantages of being an incumbent.

Certainly, primary must be the bully pulpit of the White House, which focuses national media attention on him every time Trump makes an announcement.

But think also of his hugely enhanced campaign ability by having the use of Air Force One, which gives him at taxpayer expense the ability “to travel anywhere in the world on a moment’s notice…. Air Force One is one of the most recognizable symbols of the presidency, spawning countless references not just in American culture but across the world. Emblazoned with the words ‘United States of America,’ the American flag, and the Seal of the President of the United States, it is an undeniable presence wherever it flies.”

“Capable of refueling midair, Air Force One has unlimited range and can carry the President wherever he needs to travel. The onboard electronics are hardened to protect against an electromagnetic pulse, and Air Force One is equipped with advanced secure communications equipment, allowing the aircraft to function as a mobile command center in the event of an attack on the United States.”

“Inside, the President and his travel companions enjoy 4,000 square feet of floor space on three levels, including an extensive suite for the President that features a large office, lavatory, and conference room. Air Force One includes a medical suite that can function as an operating room, and a doctor is permanently on board. The plane’s two food preparation galleys can feed 100 people at a time.”

Not bad eh? Bet “Sleepy Joe”, now redubbed by Trump “Creepy Joe” wishes he had similar accommodations.

How about his use of Tweets? Some would argue these tweets are a substantial negative toward his reelection, but he has stated he will continue as they reach millions, many from his solid base of 40 or so percent. His May 28th Executive Order against any “unfair” attempts to restrain his proven false claims, it can be assumed that his lying message gets to his base.

Now he is trying to scare the electronic media with the specter of possible lawsuits by denying them immunity from things which appear on their sites.

As Huffposts Lee Moran noted on May 29th, “Twitter applied a warning label early Friday on Donald Trump’s latest tweet about the death of George Floyd, which it said violated its rules against glorifying violence.”

Trump had called people protesting the death of Floyd, who died in Minneapolis on Monday after a police officer knelt on his neck, “THUGS” and threatened violence in response. “Any difficulty and we will assume control but, when the looting starts, the shooting starts,” tweeted the president.” Remember how some of those who brought violence to Charlottesville were described as good people. Trump also enjoys a huge war chest which gives him almost unlimited use of media. His comatose party has given him full license to do almost anything without comment from leading Republicans, save perhaps Mitt Romney.

Just to remind you of the possible road ahead advantages for the incumbent, I built a list which incorporates what Professor Hanson noted with my own description of their possible impact on the election’s outcome.

You may be traveling in circles which abhor Trump, so be aware your side is being overpowered by what will happen as we approach the November election day.

If many of these events happen as seems reasonable to assume many will, Biden will not win.

One, the economy will at least partially revive and unemployment will drop to near pre Coronavirus levels.

Two, the stock market will continue to rise, since the number of shares bought back by the big companies make power concentrated more than before in their managements, whose proclivity in favor of a Trump reelection is strong.

Three, the power of being President historically has been a terrific advantage for his reelection even when the incumbent is regarded by a large percentage of voters as unpopular.

Four, the Middle East wars are not major headlines anymore and thus their longevity is not as relevant.

Five, Biden is in his Wilmington basement and the electronic Democratic convention may prove less effective.

Six, Biden may have trouble finding the right woman VP because she can’t be both white and black.

Seven, the flood of government money as low interest rates won’t turn off voters who are uncaring about the debt anyway.

Eight, the vaccine efforts, which we all await with such anticipation, are likely to be faster than usual, thus making people feel good about overall progress and forgetful of the lack of virus prevention organization by Trump.

Nine, the need to get airlines and cruise ships and travel generally back to the new normal means lower prices which should attract advance reservations even before Election Day.

Ten, Trump’s attempted embrace of religious rights in secular governance attracts the born-again crowd.

Eleven, big time sports will be coming back soon and we know their drawing power on people’s time.

So the lying, the crudity, the long ago and now almost unreported sexual stories, the policy misadventures will be papered over by the flood of Tweets and the hale of false charges against anyone who says anything negative about the Grand Poobah whose personal businesses will continue to benefit his net worth (which we won’t really know because his personal tax returns remain unpublished).

Many of the issues most anti Trump voters care about such as family planning and abortion choice, climate change, less pollution, and many other salient and urgently untended issues are ignored by voters who as paycheck to paycheck people see their livelihoods as more important than issues they feel they can’t impact even if they wanted to.

Speaking of packing, the already packed with conservative Supreme Court justices faces the loss during a 2nd term of some elderly judges who believe in women’s rights.

Bet you can think of many other reasons why Trump’s reelection is highly probable. Please let me know what they are.

It will take a huge ground swell of efforts to overcome the incumbent’s natural advantage and his willingness to use any means to gain his 2nd term.

Former US Navy officer, banker and venture capitalist, Donald A. Collins, a free lance writer living in Washington, DC., has spent over 40 years working for women’s reproductive health as a board member and/or officer of numerous family planning organizations including Planned Parenthood Federation of America, Guttmacher Institute, Family Health International and Ipas. Yale under graduate, NYU MBA. He is the author of From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013.

From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013

By Donald A. Collins
Publisher: Church and State Press (July 30, 2014)
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