Does Population decline to 10 billion make that sustainable?

By Donald A. Collins | 20 October 2025
Church and State

(Image by David Mark from Pixabay)

There has been quite a number of studies which show that except for Africa there has been a definite decline in human birth rates so that at sometime in this century, the rapid increase in human numbers that began with my birth in 1931 and has now reached 8 plus billion will likely rapidly slow so the number could be less than the 12 billion in 2100 now predicted!

Many analysts have argued that this will be a number that can be sustainable without having dangerous effects on human life and other life on planet earth.

Too many observers, including myself, think this point of view seems ridiculous.

Since our current president believes that environmental problems argued by the vast majority of scientists is a hoax, federal funding for correcting such problems has now been taken from the US budget, even though the private sector has continued to develop ways for wind solar, and a nuclear energy to fund the vast increases that will be required to sustain artificial intelligence.

Homo sapiens also seem to be capable of producing massive amounts of waste, not all of which will be burned or put in landfills at the same time.

Some of the pristine areas of the world are under pressure such as the national parks where the current administration is planning to dig for more coal.

Assuming that the projections of the optimists on population numbers are correct that the number of Homo sapiens on the planet will be around 10 billion at the end of the century, a major question still remains about the sustainability of such a large number, which has grown from 2 billion in my lifetime to perhaps 10 billion by 2100.

Here’s where the main argument commences! At 10 billion can both humans and the other living things on our planet be sustained.

You can read here that the optimists about sustainability offer a little proof that even the present number and base sustained.

One article on Wikipedia lists reasons for the lack of sustainability:

Some mentioned, Resource depletion, environmental crisis, overconsumption, poverty and infant child mortality, political dissent, and Epidemics and pandemics to name a few.

Read the ful Wikipedia article here.

Certainly, the effect of AI unemployment remains an open question.

Also, the trend described in Elizabeth Kolbert’s 2014 Pulitzer Prize, a winning book entitled “The Sixth Extinction” is already well advanced as experts agree, the optimist view of sustainability is highly questionable.

Having had earlier major world extinctions, possibly most notable the fifth extinction which finished off the dinosaurs, it may well be overly optimistic to think that we can gear back on present trends and save us all.

Surely, modest, inexpensive, and likely impossible to initiate step could be taken by offering all women every means of choosing a free family planning method. But pursuing such a course for women’s betterment is a worthy goal by itself and certainly would affect migration from poor to wealthy countries!

Still, I am not an optimist about avoiding Kolbert’s Sixth Extinction!!!

Former US Navy officer, banker and venture capitalist, Donald A. Collins, a free lance writer living in Los Angeles, CA, has spent over 60 years working for women’s reproductive health as a board member and/or officer of numerous family planning organizations including Planned Parenthood Federation of America, Guttmacher Institute, Family Health International and Ipas. Yale under graduate, NYU MBA. He is the author of 15 books: “From the Dissident Left: A Collection of Essays 2004-2013”, “Trump Becoming Macbeth: Will our democracy survive?”, “We Humans Overwhelm Our Earth: 11 or 2 Billion by 2100?”, “What Can Be Done Now to Save Habitable Life on Planet Earth?”, “Vote”, “Can Homo Sapiens Survive?”, “Will Choice and Democracy Win?”, “Can Our U.S. Survive 8 Plus Billion of Us”, “Economic Growth: A Cancer on all Earthly Life”, “On the Precipice of Political Disaster in 2024”, “Democracy at Red State Risk”, “Does Trump Go to Jail or to The Oval Office?”, “Trump: Pardon or Punish?: The Nixon Precedence Was Not A Trump Coup Denied!”, “Common Sense: When will Trump be Impeached, Indicted, and Exited?” and “Trump–unrestrained dangerous liar!”.

The Sixth Extinction Explained | Humanity’s Impact on Earth

Sir David Attenborough on overpopulation

Hastening the Inevitable Demographic Revolution | Christopher Tucker | TEDxPenn

Population Dynamics, BEYOND CONCEPTION

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